Tom Ridge to Support McCain, Chair Exploratory Committee

The first Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge has pledged his support for John McCain and will serve as the national co-chair of McCain's exploratory committee, the McCain campaign announced today.

If It Is Hillary...

If Hillary turns out to be the Democratic Nominee who gives Republicans the best chance? It's early to say, but we can look at head-to-head polls from RealClearPolitics:



Giuliani has the best shot and seems to be gaining on Hillary all the time...

Poll	Date	Giuliani	Clinton	Spread
Average	02/06 to 02/24	48.30%	43.30%	Giuliani +5.0%
Zogby	02/22 - 02/24	47%	40%	Giuliani +7%
Rasmussen	02/21 - 02/22	52%	43%	Giuliani +9%
Quinnipiac	02/13 - 02/19	48%	43%	Giuliani +5%
Marist	02/12 - 02/15	47%	45%	Giuliani +2%
FOX News	02/13 - 02/14	49%	40%	Giuliani +9%
USA Today/Gallup	02/09 - 02/11	50%	48%	Giuliani +2%
Siena	02/06 - 02/09	45%	44%	Giuliani +1%

John McCain is iffy...could go either way...

Poll Average	Date 02/06 to 02/24	McCain 46.00%	Clinton 44.80%	Spread McCain +1.2%
Zogby	02/22 - 02/24	47%	39%	McCain +8%
Quinnipiac	02/13 - 02/19	46%	44%	McCain +2%
Marist	02/12 - 02/15	46%	46%	Tie
USA Today/Gallup	02/09 - 02/11	47%	50%	Clinton +3%
Siena	02/06 - 02/09	44%	45%	Clinton +1%

If Hillary is picked, Mitt Romney has some campaigning to do...

Poll	Date	Romney	Clinton	Spread
RCP Average	02/05 to 02/24	37.30%	48.50%	Clinton +11.2%
Zogby	02/22 - 02/24	35%	45%	Clinton +10%
Quinnipiac	02/13 - 02/19	37%	49%	Clinton +12%
Marist	02/12 - 02/15	36%	49%	Clinton +13%
Rasmussen	02/05 - 02/06	41%	51%	Clinton +10%

Defeating the Jihadists

On Governor Mitt Romney's webpage you won't find anything about the "War in Iraq." Instead, it's all about "Defeating the Jihadists." Pretty smart for someone who is pro-war (most of the time), and supports the troop-increase. We're not "stabilizing Iraq," we're "defeating the Jihadists!"

For a good look at how everyone voted for the War in Iraq, what they think now, and whether they support the troop increase - as well as a good listing of some candidates you've maybe never heard of - check out this New York Times Article

Weekly Internet Rankings

Something we're going to do every week here at weneedtoblog is examine the alexa.com internet ranking of all the major candidates' websites.

Below, they are separated Republican (red) and Democrat (blue) and in order by their US ranking.

Democrats continue to blow Republicans out of the water. Many more visitors to their sites than Republicans overall...many, many more. But within each party, the stats might surprise you...Obama beating Hillary, and Romney beating Giuliani who is beating McCain. Remember the numbers below are their rankings compared to the entire internet (the lower the number, the more visitors).

Candidate____Website____World Rank__US Rank

Mitt Romney	mittromney.com	191,054	19,214
Rudy Giuliani	joinrudy2008.com	217,752	26,335
John McCain	johnmccain.com	413,408	38,599
Duncan Hunter	gohunter08.com	614,563	63,223
Sam Brownback	brownback.com	373,420	71,490
Tom Tancredo	teamtancredo.com	627,931	81,612
Mike Huckabee	explorehuckabee.com	962,358	100,908
Tommy Thompson	tommy2008.com	2,415,902	295,291
Barak Obama	barakobama.com	17,148	1,547
Hillary Clinton	hillaryclinton.com	22,635	2,631
John Edwards	johnedwards.com	47,224	7,780
Dennis Kucinich	kucinich.us	199,971	27,690
Joe Biden	joebiden.com	491, 375	44,371
Bill Richardson	richardsonforpresident.com	433,316	73,287
Tom Vilsack*	tomvilsack08.com	362,818	74,864
Chris Dodd	chrisdodd.com	757,406	99,905
Mike Gravel	gravel2008.us	1,014,896	171, 977

*Tom Vilsack is no longer a presidential candidate

What is perhaps most surprising is when the world ranking doesn't correspond to the US Ranking. Unexplained to us, Bill Richardson had a higher rank in Estonia (39,075) than in the United States (73,287), Tommy Thompson had a higher rank in Australia (179,688) than in this country (295, 291), and Mike Gravel, although barely known to American voters is apparently more popular in both Lithuania (ranked 77, 657) and Australia (140,575).

Next week we'll show you updated stats and the change from this week. Website traffic may not be an accurate way of looking at the overall demographic, but this early in the stage it's a good indicator of momentum, particularly on the grassroots front.

VILSACK OUT OF THE RACE

Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack has dropped out of the 2008 run for the White House.

At a new conference, Vilsack cited trouble raising money early in the game as the underlying reason. He is the first drop out of the year (Evan Bayh dropped out in December).

This raises a lot of questions though. Although Vilsack didn't have an outpouring of support he had a core group of very loyal supporters, most of whom are in Iowa. Who will they support now?

Can't Get Enough Facebook

We've been talking an awful lot about social networking sites like Facebook lately, and with good reason. Barak Obama has recently added a Facebook link to his website, and he's putting it to full use. Barak is not only putting a smiling face on Facebook and asking for friends, he's putting up the rarely used Facebook Notes, as well as events.


He also doesn't seem to be editing wall postings for language or content, which could gain him popularity among the Facebook Crowd? Example:


And, he's on Flikr as well...which is becoming a strong trend among candidates.




Tom Visack has also joined the online community, becoming a member on the host of social networking sites that seem to be making up the campaign so far. This from his campaign website:Will these sites help candidates gain momentum and grassroots support? It seemed to work for Dean, but now they just have to find a way to translate that support into actual votes, where Dean ultimately failed.


So far, no word from Republicans on social networking sites. Come on guys, even FoxNews has a sponsored Facebook group.

Facebook: The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly

We've seen Facebook come center stage early in the race so far. With Chris Dodd all over it, and Barak Obama paying for adspace on it...but we tend to forget facebook is grass-roots. Young people (most who won't turn out to vote) can create groups, put up pictures, etc - but as we've seen YouTube ruin the fate of a few, Facebook can go negative too.

As to an earlier post that said people don't hate Hillary much anymore, Facebook seems to differ...a group search of her name comes up with far more anti-Hillary groups than pro. Shown here is a selection from the first page of that search.

And Numbers for the Democrats...

A clear Hillary win if the election were today...but we've got a long ways to go...

Republican Poll Numbers

Giuliani gains some ground as we look at this week's USAToday/Gallup Poll among Republican contenders (or possible contenders...or people who just poll higher than contenders):

Things are Looking Up for Many Candidates

Hillary Clinton received her all-time high approval rating from this weeks USAToday/Gallup poll, 58% favorable, 40% unfavorable and (no surprise) only one percent of people have no opinion on Hillary!

Of course Obama also experienced a spike in approval ratings from last week (53/19, +11). So did John McCain (57/26, +9), and Rudy Giuliani (66/22, +4).

Mitt Romney, however, suffered a ever-so-slight decrease (18/18, -1), but what is remarkable here is that 47% of voters have never even heard of him.

John Edwards also suffered a decrease (49/31, -5), as did Al Gore (why are we still polling about Al Gore again?)

A Million Dollars in a Week? With Bill's Help.

Hillary Clinton is trying to raise money Dean-style: online. Going for a million dollars in one week. An email to supporters from husband Bill Clinton is sure to help the effort. So far she's about 25% there... will she make it? With Bill's help anything is possible.

McCain Spends Time in SC

Third straight day for John McCain in South Carolina and it seems to be working for him. While in January, SC Speaker of the House Bobby Harrell endorsed McCain, today he was joined by state Sen. Hugh Leatherman.


Here's the kicker for Republicans who think McCain is too liberal...



"Once upon a time, Ronald Reagan was a Democrat before he became a Republican. Sen. Leatherman was also a Democrat before he saw the light and became a Republican," McCain said to applause and laughter from the crowd.




And who can blame him for spending so much time in South Carolina - the state that pretty much wrapped up his presidential campaign in 2000, a huge let down after his New Hampshire win.


But today is McCain's last day in South Carolina - off to California tomorrow for a press conference with Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Romney to Fire Government Workers?

Many Republicans talk about downsizing government, but few brag about firing government workers. A video on Mitt Romney's site shows him bragging about firing government workers. While most of the video has other people talking about Romney, he himself gets on screen and says, "we ended up cutting more government workers than any other state in America."

Might help in the primary, will it come back to bite him?

Obama Hits Facebook

Not to be outdone by Chris Dodd, Obama has an advertisement on Facebook(I know, who pays to be on facebook?)...found by Hotline.

Phones are Quiet among Prominent Moderates in Iowa

Joy Corning is a former two-term Lieutenant Governor of Iowa, a Republican that one would think campaigns would be clamoring to get an endorsement out of. But, according to the Des Moines Register, Corning's phone is silent. She hasn't even been contacted by any campaign seeking an endorsement.

Why? "They are all trying to appeal to the far right." says the moderate Corning.

Conservatives make up two-thirds of Iowa GOP caucus participants. And what do these voters want to hear?

- Conservatives in Iowa solidly oppose abortion rights and gay marriage.

- Many also say they oppose earned citizenship for illegal immigrants.

- They support President Bush's execution of the war in Iraq

And Let's look at the big names to see how they stack up:

While, as the chairman of the Dickinson County Republicans Mike Koenecke says, "Conviction to principles is more important to me than winning," he is still "hard right" when it comes to abortion rights, gay marriage, and amnesty for illegal immigrants.

So how do the big-name candidates stack up? Well...

Rudy Giuliani supports abortion rights, gay rights, and earned citizenship for illegal immigrants. Three strikes - yet he still leads most polls in Iowa.

John McCain opposes abortion rights and gay marriage...but he opposes a constitutional amendment defining marriage as between a man and a woman. He is also a strong supporter of allowing illegals citizenship if they pass a number of steps, such as paying back taxes and penalties.

Mitt Romney...well, who really knows? The Massachusetts Governor supported abortion rights and gay rights during his 1994 U.S. Senate bid, but now he is opposed to both.

So the big-names are not fairing so well with Iowa voters, it seems - does this open the chance for a lesser-known candidate?

Mike Huckabee seems to identify with Iowa voters more, except for extending healthcare and education to illegals as Governor. And he has spoken out against President Bush's plan to send more troops to Iraq, which Iowa conservatives seem to ardently support.

Then there is Senator Sam Brownback (who?), who is supports defining marriage, is anti-abortion, and very pro-Iraq. Now if he could just get voters to recognize him, maybe he could get his views across.

If Only 13 Year-Olds Could Vote...

Chris Dodd, with very little coverage in the mainstream media, has taken to the internet. He has anchored himself on every major social networking site: Facebook, MySpace, YouTube, and Flickr.

On to South Carolina and...Racial Politics!

We're far from a clear leader in Iowa or New Hampshire, but candidates are wasting no time heading to South Carolina. Obama was there Saturday, Chris Dodd was planning on attending the same day but backed out at the last minute, instead sending a surrogate to "other planned events," John McCain made a visit yesterday and Hillary Clinton will be there today.

Obama visited Claftin University, an historically black college and Hillary will visit Allen University, a -you guessed it- historically black college.

It was Obama's first trip to South Carolina, and that's all it took to get racial politics started according to the Charlotte Observer. Of course, it was just a few days ago that a black South Carolina legislator, Senator Robert Ford, concluded that Obama winning the White House would lead to losses for Democrats both in Congress and gubernatorial races.

According to The State, responding to Ford's remarks was the highpoint of Obama's speech, and in fact it does currently headline Obama's website.

"Everybody is entitled to their opinion," Obama said, "but I know this: That when folks were saying, 'We're going to march for our freedom,' somebody said, 'You can't do that.' And somebody said, 'Don't sit at the lunch counter, don't share our table.' We can't do that. We can't." Which led to the crowd chanting "Yes We Can."

Is this significant beyond the fact that we have an African-American with a legitimate shot at winning the White House? Yes. South Carolina, an early primary state, might be essential in determining who the winner is and, more importantly, half of South Carolina democratic primary voters are black. Whether they follow Obama or Hillary in that state could determine the outcome.

"I don't see [Obama] beating Mrs. Clinton among blacks here," said Francis Marion University political scientist Neal Thigpen, who closely follows S.C. presidential politics.

South Carolina will be the state to watch - and not just for Democrats. According to the State Party's Website, no Republican has ever lost the South Carolina primary and gone on to win the party's nomination.

Debates are already planned, with the Democrats on April 26th (aired on MSNBC) and Republicans on May 15th (aired on FoxNews Channel).

Hillary Clinton: Not So Bad?

According to a New York Times article, Hillary Clinton isn't getting the public beating she had expected...or even hoped for?

A main point in Hillary's fundraising stump speech has been that she needs money to "fight back" against the onslaught of criticism and attacks she will undoubtedly face in the upcoming election.


But perhaps Christopher Ruddy, who once worked full-time for Mr. Scaife investigating the Clintons, puts it best: “Clinton wasn’t such a bad president...in fact, he was a pretty good president in a lot of ways." Which is saying something considering, according to Ruddy, “the level of intensity and anger toward Hillary is not getting to the level that it was toward Bill Clinton when he was president.”




But the question may not be is this good news or bad news for Hillary's fundraising hopes...but rather is this good news or bad news for Republicans? Many who see Hillary Clinton as the best chance of unifying their party, particularly considering how their field of candidates so far seems to be doing exactly the opposite.

Giuliani Has a WIDE Margin on McCain

According to a CBS News Poll, Rudy Giuliani is beating John McCain head-t0-head by 29 points.

PREFERENCE IF GOP NOMINATION WERE JUST MCCAIN V. GIULIANI
(Among Republican Primary Voters)

Giuliani 50%

McCain 21%

Neither 13%



Among Republican Primary voters, 59% thought McCain had the "right temperament to be President," while 76% though Giuliani did - and the questions were asked seperately. 17 points is a pretty large margin there.

Though Guliani drops behind Republican primary voters who think he "shares their values," with only 57% agreeing (I don't now if that says more about Giuliani or Republicna primary voters). McCain on the otherhand, has 60% that share his values, a small lead.

Overall opinion shows another Giuliani advantage, though with more undecided folks in McCain's camp...maybe they'll be swayed by that section of his website just for them:


Overall Opinion of McCain:
Favorable 31%
Not favorable 20%
Undecided 28%
Don’t know enough yet 21%


Overall Opinion of Giuliani:
Favorable 41%
Not favorable 18%
Undecided 25%
Don’t know enough yet 16%

McCain on the Superhighway, Attempts to Appeal to Reagan Conservatives

John McCain has launched his website, johnmccain.com, which he claims to be "a departure from the tradiitional campaign website." Upon first look, all you really notice is that it's black and white (insert jokes relating website colors to personality here), but once you get to the videos you see that he's got other things on his mind. He's a conservative again!

The site includes a video entitled "Reagan Tribute," which is a montage of pictures showing McCain at Reagan's side and of course another POW plug.



To make sure that viewers get the message that John McCain likes Ronald Reagan so much because he is a conservative too, McCain lays it out there saying, "I am confident that the reason why I hold a lot of the philosophical views that I have are the inspiration of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan, there's no doubt about it."

Of course there is also the please-seperate-me-from-George W. Bush-plug, "One of the things that caused our defeat in 2006 is we strayed from many of [Reagan's] principles, we forgot where we were and who we are."

But McCain does seem to have the internet crowd down. He, like everyone else, has his own blog, and perhaps the most innovative thing: YouTube town hall! Now we've seen how YouTube has destroyed candidates (read: Mukaka), but John McCain seems to be attempting to use it as his advantage. The idea is that you put a video on YouTube asking John McCain about an issue that is important to you, register the video on McCain's site, and he posts responses. Pretty nifty way to get plenty of your supporters on YouTube...we'll see how it works.

The Undecided page helps voters to choose John McCain in an ever-widening field of Republican contenders for President when none seem to be taking center-stage. The site is certainly more fun than http://www.joinrudy2008.com/, and A LOT better than the Solutions America (Rudy's PAC) site, which is literally just a logo.